Gulf Conflict Drives Up Global Shipping Costs: No Shipper Spared

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As the military conflict in the Arabian Gulf enters its second month, cost pressures are accelerating across global shipping. From Asian factories to Western consumers, no link in the chain remains untouched.

Core Assessment: Shippers Pay for Uncertainty

"The cost of uncertainty sits with the shipper, even on trades with no direct exposure to the Middle East," warns Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta.

Since the conflict began in late February, spot rates on Asia-Europe and Asia-US routes have jumped 29%-31% – despite being thousands of miles from the fighting.

How Disruption Spreads

The transmission follows a clear path:

Stage	Impact
Strait of Hormuz restricted	Vessels cannot enter Persian Gulf
Cargo diverted to Asian hubs	Singapore, Port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas congested
Hub congestion spreads	Europe and US routes see capacity tighten
Result	Freight rates up ~30% on major lanes

Fuel costs have risen even faster. Bunker prices have doubled in weeks at major ports including Singapore and China. Maersk has introduced emergency fuel surcharges of $200 per TEU (head-haul) and $100 per TEU (backhaul).

Carriers' Three Levers

Facing sustained uncertainty, carriers are using three main tools:

Slow steaming

– reduces fuel use and absorbs capacity

Route diversion

– via Cape of Good Hope, adding 7-14 days transit time

Blank sailings

– canceling voyages if conditions worsen

"With no visible end to the crisis, carriers are drawing up another set of contingency plans," Sand notes.

Who Bears What?

Shipper Type	Impact
Middle East traders	Route disruptions, war risk surcharges
Europe/US traders	30% rate hikes, fuel surcharges, delays
Intra-Asia traders	Feeder delays from hub congestion

What Shippers Should Do

Four practical steps:

Accept higher costs as unavoidable
Add safety stock for longer transit times (7-14 days extra)
Communicate daily with freight forwarders
Review long-term contract surcharge clauses

Outlook: Three Scenarios

Scenario	Likelihood	Impact
Protracted stalemate	Highest	Rates stay high, surcharges persist
Diplomatic breakthrough	Medium	Gradual rate decline
Further escalation	Low but possible	Rates jump again, blank sailings increase

Conclusion

A ship stuck in the Persian Gulf pushes freight rates up worldwide. That is not hyperbole – it is the reality of global shipping in 2026. For shippers, the challenge is not accepting higher prices, but keeping supply chains moving while uncertainty persists.

Based on Xeneta, Drewry, and public market data.

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